Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c62c3f34fe70eb28593294dc9446489a8070416988b9dc623e6aee1268fd6fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 936.62$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 600.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 262.64$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed Yes | 13c | 252$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 241.13$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 78c | 237$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 218.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 174.19$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 117.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 28c | 107.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 104.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 36c | 103.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 66c | 94.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 93.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 23c | 82.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 79.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 76c | 71.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 71.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 68.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 57.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 46.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 46.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 65c | 45.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 43.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 32c | 31.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 31.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 78c | 26.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…4e1bbacked No | 74c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 69c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 66c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 74c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.