TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $818 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Under56c499.99$280 inWon+$2201625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over44c473.59$207 inLost-$206.711,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Over49c125$61 inLost-$61.255655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under51c124.66$64 inWon+$60.994,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Over49c95$47 inLost-$4744245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under50c60$30 inWon+$308,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c34.99$20 inWon+$14.912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under68c30$20 inWon+$9.532147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…13d6backed Under70c29.34$20 inWon+$8.871450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ce…feb1backed Over46c26.52$12 inLost-$12.24332.6%14 W · 29 L-8.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.