TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,875
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,875 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under59c2,017$1,190 inWon+$826.981,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over41c1,996$818 inLost-$818.368,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over55c1,352$743 inLost-$742.974,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under45c1,302$586 inWon+$716.0411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c1,290$630 inWon+$660.0110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f48…235cbacked Over51c1,256$641 inLost-$640.82035%7 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Over71c431.03$306 inLost-$306.0315639.1%61 W · 95 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under59c61.55$37 inWon+$25.045,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over42c49.01$21 inLost-$20.88,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07b4…6855backed Over59c33.06$20 inLost-$19.6614149.6%70 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf236…2e36backed Under41c31.49$13 inWon+$18.683930.8%12 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c78…7d67backed Under47c30$14 inWon+$15.97445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under44c27.48$12 inWon+$15.441,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over52c27.12$14 inLost-$14.151,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.