MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97357c44f8d3acdd4defb6cf621181efc9e8fddb01e0c601039fdd563244c592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 272,519$128,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,083.86 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 53c | 212,853$112,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,040.91 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 50,000$26,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,500 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 2,326$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 2,168$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.1 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 52c | 2,002$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.96 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 53c | 973.2$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 457.75$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 393.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 52c | 313.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 51c | 226.87$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 53c | 70.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e9…7302backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 53c | 42.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 39.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 15.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.