TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,862 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x032e…2a9ebacked No54c1,000$540 inLost-$5402,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes46c956$440 inWon+$516.246,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Yes46c940.19$432 inWon+$507.71,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked No2c883.12$14 inLost-$13.643625%9 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No54c633$342 inLost-$341.821,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes46c443.46$204 inWon+$239.473,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ebb…2b75backed No52c424.51$221 inLost-$220.758148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked No54c400$216 inLost-$215.944546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes46c355.7$164 inWon+$192.084951%25 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Yes48c320.04$154 inWon+$166.4213743.8%60 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Yes45c270$122 inWon+$148.417346.2%80 W · 93 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked No54c211$114 inLost-$113.944438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed No54c185.19$100 inLost-$10010953.2%58 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes61c100$61 inWon+$39.3555758%323 W · 234 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No54c100$54 inLost-$53.921,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bd…f540backed No54c97.19$52 inLost-$52.4813250.8%67 W · 65 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No44c91.04$40 inLost-$39.6258352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Yes74c85$63 inWon+$22.2526762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No60c83.12$50 inLost-$49.878,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No52c51.05$27 inLost-$26.5548653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No39c40$16 inLost-$15.6147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9717…bd55backed No60c39.8$24 inLost-$23.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No39c36.11$14 inLost-$14.095,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed No49c33$16 inLost-$16.171735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No53c22.95$12 inLost-$12.11,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.