MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7479c6dfb670211d1c7290f405366ecdbd31dd73f062ac1cfed4aeb98a2fb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 9,791$3,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,720.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 9,673$6,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,668.98 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 2,875$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.19 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 1,085$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 981.64$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.8 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 770.2$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.52 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 677.92$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.92 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 672.61$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 636.99$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 530.17$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 399$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 18c | 301.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 300.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 281.09$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.47 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 158$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 143.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 130$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 95.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 94.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 79.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…30b1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 65.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 55.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 54.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 53.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 48.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 20.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 15.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.