Olympics · resolved market
Olympic Men’s Basketball Final: USA vs. France
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ca3f55e674d0ae4446580db7516d7c8de8cc571b587c2173f8186874747fbab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof USA, France
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x008a…21a8backed France | 9c | 6,000$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2c…32b7backed France | 9c | 5,269$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…65cabacked France | 9c | 5,033$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed France | 7c | 4,716$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.46 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed France | 8c | 4,554$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.02 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed France | 7c | 3,140$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.85 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…8780backed France | 4c | 2,739$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked France | 10c | 2,521$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…a6d7backed France | 9c | 2,260$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed France | 11c | 2,006$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb0…26f9backed France | 7c | 1,786$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked France | 7c | 1,419$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed France | 8c | 1,315$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed France | 5c | 1,269$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed France | 7c | 1,224$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53df…2338backed France | 9c | 1,217$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…6697backed France | 9c | 1,212$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…61b9backed France | 9c | 1,187$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7c…5151backed France | 10c | 1,128$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…3e8dbacked France | 9c | 1,122$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked France | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed France | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed France | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed France | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked France | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cc…29b3backed France | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…ab95backed France | 9c | 543.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…9387backed France | 10c | 531.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed France | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked France | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…bfd6backed France | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdd…6a3abacked France | 11c | 448$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…e30ebacked France | 8c | 420$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…1a5cbacked France | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked France | 7c | 339.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…6535backed France | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…682dbacked France | 5c | 311.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked France | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9c3cbacked France | 6c | 280.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…3282backed France | 4c | 271.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…143dbacked France | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…ed88backed France | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a7…4cb6backed France | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…b762backed France | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed France | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f5…8c66backed France | 7c | 184.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2d…5a5ebacked France | 8c | 155.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa202…4968backed France | 7c | 153.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked France | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked France | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed France | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…bf2abacked France | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked France | 10c | 109.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.