Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb56c52301814c6dc2da74e7b31ce70fa931ee05a9610690964eaf98f9ac068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 723.55$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 14c | 677$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 525.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 342.88$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 10c | 331.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 288.32$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 279.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 22c | 272$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 268.53$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 24c | 226.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 12c | 203.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 182.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 78c | 178.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 172.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 169.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 23c | 168.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 164$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 19c | 148.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 141.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 16c | 133.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 123.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 17c | 104.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…91a4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 78.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 75.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 74.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 73.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 73.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 21c | 53.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 23c | 48.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 72c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 38.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…56a8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.