Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc120aee4bf82f0533d49fceeb7a03a316ba6c6e0334cf17f8fc591baebee1929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 4,320$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 2,257$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 68c | 2,255$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.2 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 66c | 459.92$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.25 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 332.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 313.13$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 34c | 289.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 282.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 6c | 231.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 219.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 200.65$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 164$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 61c | 151.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 19c | 142.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 139.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 139.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 63c | 137$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 69c | 135$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 129$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 44c | 124.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 110.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 56c | 102.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 29c | 83.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 65c | 81.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 40c | 76.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 60c | 72.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 15c | 70.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 25c | 66.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 74c | 65.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 64.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 56c | 63.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 53.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 58c | 52.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…b550backed No | 48c | 47.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 58c | 43.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 57c | 35.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 40c | 35.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 55c | 34.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 56c | 33.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 45c | 31.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 72c | 31.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…4a59backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 29.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 29.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 47c | 26.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fc…89f2backed Yes | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 69c | 20.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 52c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 74c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 60c | 17.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 72c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.