Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e25c91a870cd260a61cd0f708fb71f55ff36da697953c47e796ec702758e43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 24c | 1,704$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.35 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 2c | 1,262$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 2c | 1,135$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 975.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 2c | 672.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 2c | 648.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 79c | 494.24$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 471.07$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 8c | 441.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 365.49$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 27c | 362.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 21c | 358$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 23c | 347.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 298.51$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 4c | 298$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 229.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 220.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 12c | 158.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 79c | 156.65$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 131.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 22c | 118.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 22c | 113.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 14c | 107.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 23c | 103.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 25c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Yes | 16c | 92.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 23c | 85.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 21c | 82.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 79.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 63.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 61.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 21c | 60.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 56.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fc…89f2backed Yes | 26c | 52.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 69c | 41.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 75c | 32.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…27b5backed No | 73c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 23.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4402…11b8backed No | 76c | 23.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.