Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc7908c351a144528354b33f7bb48c9a589da8963217f262357b8d62a8425ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwestern State Demonsof Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, Northwestern State Demons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 49c | 6,767$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.7 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Northwestern State Demons | 51c | 5,058$2,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.7 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Northwestern State Demons | 51c | 2,150$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.5 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Northwestern State Demons | 49c | 850.75$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.88 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 47c | 796$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.12 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 47c | 732.51$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.53 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 50c | 496.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Northwestern State Demons | 51c | 470$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.3 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Northwestern State Demons | 52c | 465.66$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.52 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 63c | 301.62$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.87 | 253 | 25.3%64 W · 189 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 49c | 245.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Northwestern State Demons | 49c | 239$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb729…4e2ebacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 41c | 219.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Northwestern State Demons | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 48c | 198$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Northwestern State Demons | 48c | 194$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 48c | 189.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Northwestern State Demons | 77c | 182$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Northwestern State Demons | 46c | 180$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 34c | 157.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Northwestern State Demons | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec8…82eabacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 48c | 123.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Northwestern State Demons | 42c | 118.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Northwestern State Demons | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 49c | 49.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Northwestern State Demons | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 226 | 56.2%127 W · 99 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Northwestern State Demons | 67c | 48.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Northwestern State Demons | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Northwestern State Demons | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Northwestern State Demons | 34c | 39.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-14.5)this page
- Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin LumberjacksStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks won
- Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 141.5Under won
- Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 142.5Under won
- Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 143.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.