Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdff87a291552cb51531c5f30515a521692da10cefddac627dcf4da2020f62b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksof Northwestern State Demons, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Northwestern State Demons | 3c | 31,260$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.37 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Northwestern State Demons | 6c | 12,591$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.38 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 10,525$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.29 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00db…4be2backed Northwestern State Demons | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Northwestern State Demons | 3c | 8,018$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.22 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Northwestern State Demons | 4c | 4,324$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.45 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 3,750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 2,526$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.56 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Northwestern State Demons | 5c | 1,829$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Northwestern State Demons | 2c | 1,542$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Northwestern State Demons | 17c | 1,373$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.38 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 1,331$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Northwestern State Demons | 3c | 1,125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 1,025$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Northwestern State Demons | 7c | 1,016$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Northwestern State Demons | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 910$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Northwestern State Demons | 3c | 895$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 830.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 230 | 28.3%65 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 646.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Northwestern State Demons | 7c | 617.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…8a4ebacked Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 591.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…8b4ebacked Northwestern State Demons | 3c | 436.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Northwestern State Demons | 4c | 410.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe421…503cbacked Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 384.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Northwestern State Demons | 7c | 299.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…89e9backed Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7568…b87fbacked Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 215.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab25…5666backed Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 205.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Northwestern State Demons | 5c | 184.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…96b5backed Northwestern State Demons | 10c | 160.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 142.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…1d82backed Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 133.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…83f7backed Northwestern State Demons | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Northwestern State Demons | 16c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksthis page
- Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 141.5Under won
- Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 142.5Under won
- Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 143.5Under won
- Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-14.5)Northwestern State Demons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.