MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdd3e95817891be44e1a0fce5310da6378a546036807d360495148aa7d4125c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 10,914$6,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,236.18 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 8,245$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,046.89 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 31c | 5,009$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.63 | 150 | 44%66 W · 84 L | -16.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 27c | 1,449$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.12 | 189 | 59.8%113 W · 76 L | +14.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…70e3backed Over | 5c | 492.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 485.84$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.49 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 466.33$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.76 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 18c | 369.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 29c | 290.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.95 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 57c | 262.67$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.64 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 63c | 220$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 195.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 43c | 153.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 65c | 123.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 37c | 70.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 74c | 68.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 66c | 63.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 41c | 33.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 47c | 25.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 74c | 21.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…b4b4backed Under | 77c | 19.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.