MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe401d049bec0126a479dc905c751bcad2b513326f418d409e4fc382f8897da0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 50,004$22,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,501.56 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 55c | 48,817$26,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,983.69 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 11,511$6,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,201.38 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 51c | 9,646$4,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,726.69 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 7,248$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,473.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 6,764$3,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,081.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 3,036$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 55c | 1,093$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.56 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 46c | 1,068$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 55c | 913.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.45 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 840$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 673.2$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 50c | 536$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 490.17$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.58 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 449.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 49c | 400.67$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.33 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 50c | 300.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 38c | 298.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Under | 46c | 260$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 12c | 249$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 29c | 210.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 26c | 157.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 144.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 59c | 140.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 64c | 131.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…3ca2backed Over | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Over | 51c | 101.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…93a5backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 53c | 99.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 28c | 99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 92.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 49c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 81.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 54c | 81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 55c | 55.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 41.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Over | 61c | 30.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 55c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 47c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 55c | 21.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.