TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,210 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Blue Jays56c8,000$4,480 inWon+$3,519.9860350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies44c6,443$2,863 inLost-$2,862.558,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays63c2,678$1,686 inWon+$991.7812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies37c2,464$902 inLost-$902.0311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Toronto Blue Jays32c941.38$300 inWon+$641.377037.1%26 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies68c817.38$556 inLost-$555.8210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies47c434.56$203 inLost-$202.89,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Philadelphia Phillies49c384.1$187 inLost-$18772655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays55c288.75$159 inWon+$129.464,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Philadelphia Phillies49c252$123 inLost-$123.4817752.5%93 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies43c197.23$85 inLost-$84.682,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies38c183.13$69 inLost-$68.693,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays68c150$102 inWon+$484,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Toronto Blue Jays54c122$66 inWon+$56.125942.4%25 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b9d…77debacked Philadelphia Phillies49c106.14$52 inLost-$52.014250%21 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies46c105.35$48 inLost-$48.464,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Toronto Blue Jays69c98.99$68 inWon+$30.6943560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Philadelphia Phillies15c88$13 inLost-$12.9457046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c64.2$32 inLost-$31.9737551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacee…afddbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c60$30 inLost-$3021751.6%112 W · 105 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies50c50$25 inLost-$252,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies45c47.07$21 inLost-$21.183,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x348c…c8efbacked Toronto Blue Jays54c46.89$25 inWon+$21.6210438.5%40 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Philadelphia Phillies49c39.71$19 inLost-$19.4625260.7%153 W · 99 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Philadelphia Phillies52c38.39$20 inLost-$19.8828456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Philadelphia Phillies45c32$14 inLost-$14.4834639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Philadelphia Phillies67c30.1$20 inLost-$20.281,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Philadelphia Phillies42c30$13 inLost-$12.61,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies44c26.91$12 inLost-$11.842,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Philadelphia Phillies49c26.35$13 inLost-$12.7834754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Philadelphia Phillies47c26$12 inLost-$12.2215143.7%66 W · 85 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Philadelphia Phillies44c25.55$11 inLost-$11.1924243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa54d…7695backed Philadelphia Phillies50c25$13 inLost-$12.52450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.