College Football · resolved market
Indiana vs. Iowa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdfbf7d0bf6d6f0bea480e210289d4842825834b5ef193387661b6fec3db64d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Indiana, Iowa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Indiana | 63c | 4,550$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.11 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Iowa | 26c | 3,799$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.74 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Iowa | 16c | 2,277$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.43 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Indiana | 31c | 1,353$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.51 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…04bfbacked Iowa | 22c | 1,352$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Indiana | 74c | 1,063$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.62 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Iowa | 43c | 1,057$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.47 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Indiana | 73c | 1,031$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Iowa | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Indiana | 62c | 819.7$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.58 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Iowa | 25c | 768$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Iowa | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Indiana | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Iowa | 27c | 613.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.01 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Iowa | 28c | 357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…740bbacked Iowa | 6c | 342.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Indiana | 78c | 289.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…7693backed Iowa | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Indiana | 76c | 262.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…97b8backed Iowa | 13c | 231$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90dc…5ba6backed Iowa | 44c | 225.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Iowa | 26c | 194.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Iowa | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6a50backed Iowa | 27c | 192.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Iowa | 43c | 189.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…86f1backed Indiana | 63c | 159.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Indiana | 73c | 155.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Indiana | 73c | 147.04$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…b42fbacked Iowa | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Indiana | 72c | 124.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…0f12backed Indiana | 75c | 124.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Iowa | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Indiana | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Indiana | 57c | 95.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Indiana | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee15…15a7backed Indiana | 74c | 93.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…876bbacked Iowa | 27c | 73.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Iowa | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Indiana | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Iowa | 35c | 67.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Indiana | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef89…73e2backed Indiana | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…f15ebacked Indiana | 71c | 43.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…a3b6backed Indiana | 78c | 30.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Indiana | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…541dbacked Indiana | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Indiana | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Indiana | 73c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana vs. Iowathis page
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana (-7.5)Iowa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.