Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce8a57eeb39e51a933d7a40980d2fb85b7b8905916b085cde67685877d790c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 973.2$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.94 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 209.61$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 74c | 207.69$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 172.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 153$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 149.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 127.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…31b3backed No | 56c | 125.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 99.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 87.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 64c | 84.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 36c | 80.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 27c | 73.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 70.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 71c | 70.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 30c | 69.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 60.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 49c | 58.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked No | 55c | 49.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 43c | 46.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 55c | 44.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 57c | 42.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…4c95backed No | 64c | 37.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 37.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 35.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 67c | 34.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 66c | 32.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 76c | 31.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 29.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 50c | 28.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 67c | 26.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 45c | 22.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 74c | 18.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 68c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 72c | 15.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 75c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.