Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb0dfd48a08df9d336bb0c3d40cb2533df6b5bcc10c4270d0a6edea835ad7cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 79c | 508.2$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 294.24$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 269.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 188.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 136.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 25c | 135.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 115.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 103.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 91.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 77.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 76.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Yes | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 31c | 60.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 25c | 59.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 55.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 52.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 38c | 49.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 26c | 47.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…13b3backed Yes | 39c | 44.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 29cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…680abacked No | 78c | 44.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 41.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 74c | 38.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked No | 65c | 38.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 67c | 37.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 73c | 28.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 28.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 27.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 22.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 21.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 65c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 17.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.