Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cecc5b85b2d520e9feccf58b8a38eeb82ee831ecdbc78a3c87372de6df9e1ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 27c | 562.31$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 560.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 413.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 383.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 11c | 169.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 162.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 20c | 149.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 143.92$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 140.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…6926backed Yes | 28c | 126.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 113.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 26c | 113.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 31c | 113.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 11c | 104.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 12c | 102.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 74.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 16c | 68.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 60.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 59.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 25c | 56.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 73c | 49.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 49.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…2e47backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 31.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 29.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 29.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 28.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 28.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.