Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9edf3dea2c294080350c5591e824b72ba2dc7a58862416dbb6dbe016689b687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 213.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 74c | 160.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 47c | 153.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 138.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 40c | 131.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 130.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 119.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 119$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 72c | 103.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 100.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 56c | 99.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 98.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 97.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 97.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 96.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 96.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 92.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 17c | 89.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 78c | 68.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 66.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 53.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 70c | 41.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 69c | 41.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…764dbacked Yes | 33c | 37.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 37.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 36.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 31.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…3ee3backed No | 75c | 28.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…b802backed No | 71c | 26.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecd…53d5backed No | 74c | 22.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 67c | 21.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 80c | 21.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 71c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 53c | 19.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 18.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.