Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cecce7fae562351e43c493d88fb7ba5b620f5578434efa7cef615df15c862e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, UCLA Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCLA Bruins | 49c | 4,513$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.16 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 2,971$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.84 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked UCLA Bruins | 48c | 1,618$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.4 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UCLA Bruins | 49c | 997.13$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.16 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 677.78$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.67 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 632$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 502.41$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.23 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked UCLA Bruins | 44c | 400$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed UCLA Bruins | 36c | 394.25$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 339.85$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michigan State Spartans | 57c | 198.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UCLA Bruins | 51c | 196.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Michigan State Spartans | 56c | 179.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 141.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed UCLA Bruins | 51c | 118.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked UCLA Bruins | 9c | 116.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Michigan State Spartans | 59c | 101.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 100.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed UCLA Bruins | 51c | 94.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…b8f3backed UCLA Bruins | 53c | 94.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked UCLA Bruins | 51c | 91.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 315 | 37.8%119 W · 196 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 67.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed UCLA Bruins | 51c | 61.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 55.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 24.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 21.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 68c | 20.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 19.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-7.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 139.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 140.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.