Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 139.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf06cb85ca148af195e3521fe13dbbf10cb28ddfccac071c4700e1af77ed9f6c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 52c | 944$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.12 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 50c | 870$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 300.39$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 64c | 277.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 211.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Over | 63c | 191.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 34c | 170$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 59c | 162.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 46c | 100.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 46c | 84.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 77c | 60.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…19f9backed Over | 58c | 47.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 48c | 46.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 46.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 43.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 36.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 46.6%81 W · 93 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 54c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 79c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 139.5this page
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-7.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-8.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 140.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.