Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ba767fb567b60c4e1de16fce3a4b78eb2c3348a1f08ffc86176ea54b3c2f3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, UCLA Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCLA Bruins | 53c | 8,309$4,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,364.18 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079.99 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed UCLA Bruins | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 348.74$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.32 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UCLA Bruins | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…6d84backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 121.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed UCLA Bruins | 53c | 109.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans | 73c | 61.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 50.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 47.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed UCLA Bruins | 54c | 40.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 30.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed UCLA Bruins | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed UCLA Bruins | 55c | 21.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed UCLA Bruins | 55c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-7.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-8.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 139.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 140.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.