MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cffe9991da7edd1c404dda88da2aacf74830d1a9c23c0c465cca85e7e8216d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,550 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 2,866$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 2,339$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.41 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 1,727$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.48 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 1,278$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.53 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 945.09$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.72 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 898.08$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.35 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 809.68$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.53 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 689.2$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.34 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 643.93$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 599.8$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 511.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 511.57$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 495.18$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 445$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.28 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 253.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 245.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 212.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 143.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 139.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 117.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Boston Red Sox | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 99.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 98.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…28abbacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 86.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1b…7377backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 80.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…d3d0backed Boston Red Sox | 26c | 72.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 70.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 65.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 61.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9162…162cbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 53.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 51.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 47.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 42.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…69a1backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6f…5439backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…c050backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 32.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 27.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 25.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…78bcbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 24.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.