Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Billy Harris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d1ae2c5459f81be16988466eebb94afe955e5475a19e649574d771aa8c386d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billy Harrisof Stefano Napolitano, Billy Harris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Billy Harris | 78c | 5,477$4,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.61 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Stefano Napolitano | 22c | 1,944$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.24 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Stefano Napolitano | 9c | 1,333$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 1,316$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.17 | 1,158 | 41.4%479 W · 679 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Stefano Napolitano | 24c | 1,253$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Stefano Napolitano | 3c | 1,109$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Stefano Napolitano | 19c | 1,001$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.23 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stefano Napolitano | 2c | 974.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Stefano Napolitano | 22c | 810.74$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.27 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…bf0ebacked Billy Harris | 77c | 784$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.32 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Stefano Napolitano | 16c | 681.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Stefano Napolitano | 23c | 562$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 433 | 53.6%232 W · 201 L | +32.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 488.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 1,883 | 44.8%843 W · 1,040 L | +36.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Stefano Napolitano | 11c | 421.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Stefano Napolitano | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 486 | 30.9%150 W · 336 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Stefano Napolitano | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 365 | 35.1%128 W · 237 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Stefano Napolitano | 18c | 279.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Stefano Napolitano | 14c | 237.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Billy Harris | 77c | 199.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Billy Harris | 75c | 188.64$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 1,068 | 57.4%613 W · 455 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…a60fbacked Billy Harris | 80c | 167.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 169 | 67.5%114 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Billy Harris | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 652 | 50.3%328 W · 324 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Stefano Napolitano | 27c | 164.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Stefano Napolitano | 23c | 156.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 147.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…d814backed Billy Harris | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 405 | 54.1%219 W · 186 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Stefano Napolitano | 21c | 105.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,521 | 38.4%969 W · 1,552 L | +93.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Stefano Napolitano | 19c | 104.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Stefano Napolitano | 24c | 102.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Billy Harris | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,542 | 49.2%759 W · 783 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…df57backed Stefano Napolitano | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Stefano Napolitano | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Stefano Napolitano | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,580 | 42.3%668 W · 912 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Stefano Napolitano | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Stefano Napolitano | 19c | 72.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Stefano Napolitano | 21c | 71.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 304 | 36.8%112 W · 192 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Stefano Napolitano | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Billy Harris | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 443 | 63.4%281 W · 162 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Billy Harris | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Billy Harris | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Billy Harris | 77c | 21.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…67e6backed Billy Harris | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 372 | 55.6%207 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Billy Harris | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Billy Harristhis page
- Set 1 Winner: Napolitano vs HarrisHarris won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.