Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d30a2343f7892d73632a09a1337ef54b234afc30dee0cbe990bf44f64bdbb7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karlsruher SCof SC Paderborn 07, Karlsruher SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Karlsruher SC | 50c | 2,279$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.48 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Paderborn 07 | 49c | 680.55$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed SC Paderborn 07 | 49c | 608.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed SC Paderborn 07 | 50c | 504.47$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked SC Paderborn 07 | 46c | 397.12$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.68 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Karlsruher SC | 50c | 362$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SC Paderborn 07 | 53c | 224.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed SC Paderborn 07 | 54c | 203.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Karlsruher SC | 52c | 191.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Karlsruher SC | 53c | 82.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Karlsruher SC | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Karlsruher SC | 50c | 54.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Karlsruher SC | 49c | 50.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed SC Paderborn 07 | 49c | 45.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked SC Paderborn 07 | 46c | 41.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Karlsruher SC | 52c | 40.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Karlsruher SC | 54c | 38.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Karlsruher SC | 49c | 25.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.