Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ae26b537d3b3a1aef0ecea6fe8d2ed4b38554fe5b6d3f0c409fd8bf84249c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 2,992$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 2,522$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.32 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…3bcdbacked Over | 69c | 2,387$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 48c | 1,499$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.3 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 29c | 1,017$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.24 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 22c | 893.39$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.39 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 55c | 562.68$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 349.25$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 348.7$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.35 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Under | 31c | 322.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 54c | 165.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 56c | 149.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…16a0backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 62c | 114.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 53c | 97.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 64c | 97.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…b0debacked Under | 29c | 94.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Over | 50c | 80.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Under | 50c | 68.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…dcf1backed Under | 46c | 52.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 71c | 47.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…8fbfbacked Over | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 37c | 43.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked Over | 66c | 40.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…4a23backed Over | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 60c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 41c | 27.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 77c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.