Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae630eaad72245b932d603193734690f1e44475d2351379e24fa9eec55c6bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 3,808$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 2,119$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 58c | 1,727$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.13 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 54c | 1,609$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.05 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 68c | 1,021$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.35 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 71c | 560.01$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 75c | 541.58$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.78 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x620f…4288backed Over | 40c | 250.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 247.42$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…8a96backed Under | 57c | 175.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 162.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 33c | 154.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Under | 67c | 149.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…5981backed Under | 74c | 134.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…8166backed Under | 58c | 119.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 113.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 45c | 111.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 29c | 109.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 42c | 94.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 19c | 74.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 71.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 46c | 65.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 22c | 62.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…4573backed Over | 41c | 61.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 46c | 52.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 34c | 30.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 73c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.