Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6537f15d0b7efe86a5ee1b3b6f7188c5fd2e96ee52bcc8af2b8da482e5880783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 53c | 9,440$5,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,436.78 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 6,106$3,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,462.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe3…c693backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 3,259$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.71 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 50c | 2,100$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 50c | 1,809$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.47 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 1,707$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.73 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 10c | 1,400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 783.86$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.03 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 464.53$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.96 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 409.58$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.88 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 49c | 349.03$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -7.1wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 42c | 299.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.32 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 65c | 205.91$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.81 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 41c | 171.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 53c | 159.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 51c | 152.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Under | 79c | 151.14$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 53c | 98.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 70c | 94.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 88.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…ea73backed Under | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 50c | 74.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 66.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…dcf1backed Under | 72c | 61.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedd7…7336backed Under | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 31c | 54.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Over | 78c | 51.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Under | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 44.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 57c | 44.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 52c | 38.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 58c | 33.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 54c | 28.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 59c | 25.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 49c | 21.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.