Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b772d59d1c156d0eb03da73b71dfe66fa6848124249fae1f4a3534c6de7c16c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,961$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.87 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 2,427$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 2,158$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 48c | 1,236$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.46 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 47c | 1,011$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.83 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 43c | 299.62$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.51 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 63c | 220.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 38c | 166.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 51c | 154.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Yes | 59c | 109.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 33c | 107.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 61c | 106.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Yes | 60c | 106.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 61c | 81.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 38c | 75.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 61c | 65.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 50c | 63.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 39c | 63.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…dfe9backed Yes | 51c | 58.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 61c | 52.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes | 36c | 30.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed No | 58c | 18.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.