NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3325d5b7e9a3e89fc4a8729d935eeae2f2c76d8fbd253c977eb15e68d5dacf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Stars, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aca…94d0backed Wild | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…b11ebacked Stars | 31c | 321.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Stars | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Stars | 31c | 252.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Wild | 72c | 243.83$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Stars | 16c | 228.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Wild | 69c | 162.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Stars | 31c | 158.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Wild | 70c | 139.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Stars | 28c | 134$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Wild | 68c | 118.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wild | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Stars | 28c | 115$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Wild | 75c | 114$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stars | 24c | 107$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…13e1backed Wild | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Stars | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Wild | 80c | 76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Wild | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Stars | 28c | 71.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wild | 77c | 67.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Wild | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Stars | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Wild | 67c | 59.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa671…f693backed Stars | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Stars | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Wild | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Stars | 30c | 50.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Wild | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…c347backed Stars | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Wild | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wild | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Wild | 70c | 30.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Wild | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Wild | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…0438backed Wild | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Wild | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Wild | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Wild | 67c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Wild vs. StarsWild won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.