NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c5cd352257506b53676b6e8e8c021859cc9457f16fe92a4daa9510816dd322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47a8…52f9backed Over | 76c | 109,992$83,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,498.12 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under | 24c | 74,350$17,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,844 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 24c | 23,827$5,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,832.35 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 24c | 6,112$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.78 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…b908backed Under | 24c | 4,699$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 76c | 2,800$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 30c | 2,742$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.17 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 80c | 2,529$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.95 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 24c | 2,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…3c29backed Under | 24c | 1,767$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 24c | 1,188$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.11 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 876.64$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 16c | 494$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 76c | 460$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 78c | 441.13$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 18c | 402.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 76c | 393.7$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 73c | 378$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 22c | 332.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 14c | 295$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 79c | 287$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Under | 18c | 279.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 23c | 200.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…db25backed Over | 77c | 176.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 20c | 131.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 15c | 121.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 23c | 108.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 34c | 106.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 16c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 77c | 102.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…40fcbacked Under | 35c | 57.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 25c | 50.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed Over | 77c | 45.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…0a12backed Over | 54c | 33.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…e701backed Over | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 79c | 25.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 77c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. StarsWild won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.