Fifa International · resolved market
Spain to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d4254f37d129b34600452b5976b38e7ff1a7f9da758f7f447f924ba0e61e855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 8,788$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662.91 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed No | 20c | 3,511$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,804.61 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 21c | 1,250$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.73 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…459abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 80c | 800$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 19c | 767.95$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.04 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 19c | 766.52$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.98 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 20c | 725$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.58 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 20c | 686.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.86 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 19c | 625.22$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.43 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 19c | 512.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.98 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d24…6564backed No | 20c | 442.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +256.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 18c | 410.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.55 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 231.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.13 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…cb80backed Yes | 59c | 194.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Yes | 33c | 151.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 345 | 33.6%116 W · 229 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 114.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 19c | 108.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 59c | 97.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 20c | 72.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 823 | 48.8%402 W · 421 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed No | 65c | 68.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 364 | 37.1%135 W · 229 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…0ae1backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 19c | 55.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 19c | 55.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb056…bc8dbacked Yes | 80c | 53.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…3df0backed Yes | 78c | 37.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Yes | 79c | 19.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 548 | 59.5%326 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9df…2feabacked Yes | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spain to win the second half?this page
- Cabo Verde to win the second half?No won
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.