Asian League · resolved market
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d51c6b9aae67a54a9ae94f84658a8cf56b076473373aacfc1257adfac5de8a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 1,195$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.89 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…528cbacked Yes | 21c | 947.62$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 20c | 669.6$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.46 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 24c | 375$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 20c | 255.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 17c | 252.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…4933backed Yes | 22c | 161.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 79c | 134$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 18c | 133.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 118.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…7198backed Yes | 17c | 110.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 80c | 108.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 18c | 105.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 82 | 14.6%12 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 17c | 90.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 74c | 85.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…681bbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 30c | 62.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 50.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 80c | 49.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 73c | 33.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 80c | 31.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 80c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.