TailMyPicks

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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Metizport (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group D

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Johnny Speedsof Johnny Speeds, Metizport
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0478…37c3backed Metizport69c11,504$7,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,952.199952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d8…8eafbacked Metizport63c5,820$3,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,676.784768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Johnny Speeds40c4,900$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9401,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Johnny Speeds26c4,039$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.875,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked Metizport52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.9643751.7%226 W · 211 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6be…a0f3backed Metizport76c3,779$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,857.8510449%51 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed Johnny Speeds43c2,690$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.823540%14 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Johnny Speeds24c2,100$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.7911844.9%53 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Johnny Speeds34c1,569$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.7660434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Johnny Speeds36c1,553$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.7532746.5%152 W · 175 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Johnny Speeds40c1,511$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.8113151.1%67 W · 64 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Johnny Speeds24c1,500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14075145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Metizport28c1,407$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.1729340.6%119 W · 174 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Johnny Speeds33c1,340$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.781,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Johnny Speeds41c1,301$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.716,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Metizport52c1,267$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.5823356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Metizport65c1,151$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.5822266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Johnny Speeds22c1,137$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.675,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Johnny Speeds27c1,003$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.467,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed Johnny Speeds41c967.99$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.572070%14 W · 6 L+5.6wins+0.28per pick42cpaid+68.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked Johnny Speeds33c908.89$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.9527041.1%111 W · 159 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Metizport60c793.18$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.9135739.2%140 W · 217 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Metizport64c785.91$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019156.5%108 W · 83 L+0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Johnny Speeds46c661.96$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.5335748.2%172 W · 185 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1982…be15backed Johnny Speeds49c613.89$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.263154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e4…4803backed Metizport70c605.55$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.893754.1%20 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0538…85c4backed Metizport52c580$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.62030%6 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Johnny Speeds19c549$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.7913339.8%53 W · 80 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Metizport63c529.62$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.9160755%334 W · 273 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Johnny Speeds27c461$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.0620248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Johnny Speeds79c448.93$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.333,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…6be5backed Johnny Speeds42c420$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.810446.2%48 W · 56 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Johnny Speeds37c400$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25230049.3%148 W · 152 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed Johnny Speeds48c396.18$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.5310359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6a…9fb9backed Johnny Speeds17c395.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.681855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+47.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Metizport63c371.8$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2328743.2%124 W · 163 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Metizport75c357$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.9783443.6%364 W · 470 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed Johnny Speeds45c350$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19111949.6%59 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Metizport54c347.94$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.557052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Johnny Speeds42c344.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.6948543.1%209 W · 276 L-14.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f17…6001backed Johnny Speeds58c342.52$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.547152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Johnny Speeds20c300$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24015244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Metizport67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20138052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Johnny Speeds31c282.79$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.81,03857.4%596 W · 442 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Johnny Speeds41c278.12$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8234941.5%145 W · 204 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Metizport59c272.4$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.481,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Johnny Speeds19c254.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8754938.4%211 W · 338 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x034a…9ddcbacked Metizport62c244.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.510647.2%50 W · 56 L-13.4wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-27.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Johnny Speeds37c243.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7124447.1%115 W · 129 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed Johnny Speeds45c243.2$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9110643.4%46 W · 60 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Johnny Speeds28c220$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3173854.5%402 W · 336 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Johnny Speeds30c215.27$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.691,31444.3%582 W · 732 L+47.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c4…8930backed Johnny Speeds46c207.68$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.056237.1%23 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed Metizport62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12430949.2%152 W · 157 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2865…2005backed Metizport68c199.96$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.971788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+47.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x581c…a595backed Johnny Speeds38c195.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.742441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Metizport72c190.54$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9571739.6%284 W · 433 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Metizport61c189.98$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.792,46724.6%606 W · 1,861 L-318.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Johnny Speeds36c181.31$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.174,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Johnny Speeds27c180.66$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5343152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked Metizport65c178.98$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1410262.7%64 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82a1…e38bbacked Johnny Speeds20c178.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.488441.7%35 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed Johnny Speeds59c170.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5113242.4%56 W · 76 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Johnny Speeds48c166.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5373548.4%356 W · 379 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Metizport75c164.03$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5340175.1%301 W · 100 L+20.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Metizport71c159.69$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1749050.6%248 W · 242 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e1…a8d8backed Johnny Speeds43c157.45$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Johnny Speeds31c150.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0423056.1%129 W · 101 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Metizport51c148.96$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3392456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ed…7817backed Johnny Speeds33c137.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8825635.5%91 W · 165 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Metizport70c137.73$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8993261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e1…b067backed Johnny Speeds46c130.44$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.442045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked Johnny Speeds23c125.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.158058.8%47 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa8…efa7backed Johnny Speeds48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654365.1%28 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb0c…980abacked Johnny Speeds34c104.57$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.364850%24 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…2e8ebacked Johnny Speeds48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.176960.9%42 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Johnny Speeds37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6365149%319 W · 332 L-3.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Johnny Speeds25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ca…e92bbacked Metizport55c98.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9414658.2%85 W · 61 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef2…44c9backed Johnny Speeds38c95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.93141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed Johnny Speeds42c94.13$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7626046.5%121 W · 139 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc55b…b164backed Johnny Speeds43c90.3$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.613345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Metizport71c87.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2562048.2%299 W · 321 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…f2eabacked Johnny Speeds52c76.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.416758.2%39 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Johnny Speeds37c72.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6530123.3%70 W · 231 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefe7…0cdfbacked Johnny Speeds32c72.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.541540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df3…b8bebacked Johnny Speeds36c69.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4421254.2%115 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Johnny Speeds58c69.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9567645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Metizport67c68.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.851,31851.7%682 W · 636 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae5…72d2backed Johnny Speeds54c68.04$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5120054.5%109 W · 91 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Johnny Speeds65c66.65$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2366072.4%478 W · 182 L+117.6wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2b94…ab4ebacked Johnny Speeds44c66.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.071369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x061a…5a89backed Metizport48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85850%29 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94e8…f707backed Metizport75c47.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.868453.6%45 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed Johnny Speeds30c44.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2241439.1%162 W · 252 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Johnny Speeds33c44.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.581,03454.9%568 W · 466 L-2.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29fa…0eeebacked Metizport55c39.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.883234.4%11 W · 21 L-5.8wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-43.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Johnny Speeds46c39.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.434,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x074c…771cbacked Johnny Speeds34c38.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2616963.3%107 W · 62 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23df…3df7backed Johnny Speeds36c38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.253145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.