Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d761a024149ba80c1af743cadf628165a1800fd29b228663ee5b2e776dfe4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 10c | 343.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 249.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…edc9backed Yes | 9c | 233.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 182.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…d1b6backed Yes | 36c | 137.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 133.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 107.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 31c | 97.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 78c | 97.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 80.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 20c | 56.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…a453backed Yes | 36c | 55.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 52.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326b…eca1backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 34.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 27.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…35d0backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…d0f6backed No | 73c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 62c | 18.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 69c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.