Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x461039a0e4b01b8d91ee019e4ff05ff950cb48048abc4d7c2b1d8c32656e167b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 2c | 1,130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 17c | 299.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 239.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 76c | 199.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 198.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…a453backed Yes | 9c | 184.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 181.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 172.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 17c | 109.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 109.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 82.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 67.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…5753backed Yes | 31c | 65.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed No | 73c | 55.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 70c | 54.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 41c | 49.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326b…eca1backed Yes | 31c | 49.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 47.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 38c | 41.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 39.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 35.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 43c | 32.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…3f54backed Yes | 33c | 30.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 77c | 30.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…9638backed No | 66c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…8d64backed No | 67c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 45c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 57c | 27.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 27.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…47abbacked Yes | 41c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 25.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2036…9ebcbacked No | 71c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 75c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 69c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 54c | 21.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 62c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 68c | 19.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…8c3ebacked No | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…04edbacked No | 74c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…c1cdbacked No | 69c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…07c2backed No | 78c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +443.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…3d1ebacked No | 78c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.