Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d80d7e74f3c42801ddd7e6622098a917857cb8c99590d2c0399af5b155fb797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 928.02$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 391.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.11 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 34c | 312.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 279.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 259.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 7c | 257.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.73 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 11c | 235.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 29c | 225.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 7c | 218$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.21 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 22c | 213.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 6c | 202.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.16 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 6c | 181.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 171.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…b7b7backed Yes | 51c | 165.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 145.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 138.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 25c | 118.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 107.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 44c | 99.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 14c | 95.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 25c | 90.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 63c | 79.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed No | 21c | 65.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 62c | 62.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 27c | 62.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 65c | 49.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 37c | 49.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 59c | 46.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 26.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 46c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…a8dfbacked No | 43c | 24.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 22.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 65c | 18.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 16.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.