Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4567ae0ce88fd274ababb32b42b0688ee951f4bd085080a78f4cf838e0c95966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26fc…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 5,863$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 131 | 0.8%1 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -97.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 242.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked No | 73c | 219.32$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 212.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 59c | 207.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 204$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 49c | 145.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 145.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 137.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 123.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 114.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 47c | 102.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 98.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 45c | 93.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 47c | 92.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 90.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 86.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 78.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 61c | 74.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Yes | 48c | 73.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 72.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 52c | 68.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 49c | 58.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 26c | 58.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 53c | 53.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 68c | 52.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 51.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 55c | 50.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 37c | 49.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 48.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 46c | 47.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 47c | 47.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 49c | 47.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 47.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 58c | 41.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 41.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…a1cdbacked Yes | 49c | 40.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 55c | 36.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 69c | 34.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 43c | 34.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 70c | 34.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 46c | 24.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…11e1backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 80c | 16.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.