Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaaa02b802f26b84536f54e39bb83181f37653a0a79d09a5d8669dbcf1b1fdff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 5c | 275.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 263.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 245$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 217.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 11c | 215.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 43c | 203.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 42c | 199.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 177.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 8c | 167.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 23c | 163.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 62c | 156.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 154.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 148.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 58c | 147.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 13c | 141.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 138.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 64c | 132.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 126.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 65c | 109.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 37c | 100.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 99.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 37c | 95.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 89.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 60c | 87.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 42c | 62.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 26c | 61.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 57c | 55.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 67c | 54.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 51.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…aba9backed Yes | 50c | 50.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 49.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 30c | 49.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 44.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 34c | 44.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 38.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 34c | 38.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 53c | 34.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…ccfcbacked Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 39c | 30.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 67c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 29.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 69c | 27.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 57c | 25.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 60c | 25.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 59c | 23.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…08febacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.