Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d8cfea9b01fa54d9a3accfdf4e15757b9cd0ef277ce8e3788bd41bd5a840e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 4c | 534.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 63c | 315.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 79c | 286.36$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 286$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 65c | 231.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 15c | 197.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.3 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 188.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 10c | 179.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.26 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 169.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 139.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 75c | 127.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 100.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 79.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 34c | 75.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 67c | 72.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 29c | 68.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…ff73backed Yes | 37c | 66.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 63c | 65.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 69c | 64.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb563…26bfbacked Yes | 80c | 60.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 79c | 50.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2c…6f2fbacked Yes | 35c | 43.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 40.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 39.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 55c | 39.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 35.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…1861backed No | 63c | 35.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…ab86backed Yes | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 20.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 51c | 20.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 78c | 16.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.