UFC · resolved market
Will the announcers say "Knockout," "Knock Out," or "Knocked Out" during McGregor vs Holloway?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ddadbd2aab188f9c0c97612066b2ce658b5489af1939a418cb6e7053fb57f78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134b…b4d2backed Yes | 2c | 402.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 27c | 253.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.78 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…ca0cbacked Yes | 71c | 220$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 15c | 160$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.8wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 32c | 79.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 21c | 62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +68%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -4.1wins | -0.58per pick | 72cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 66c | 17.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8844…b7e5backed Yes | 68c | 17.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the announcers say "Knockout," "Knock Out," or "Knocked Out" during McGregor vs Holloway?this page
- Will the announcers say "Armbar" or "Arm Bar" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Blood," "Bloody," or "Bloodied" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Butterfly" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Choke" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Combination" or "Sequence" 5+ times during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Goat" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Holloway" 20+ times during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Ireland" or "Irish" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Khabib" or "Oliveira" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "McGregor" 20+ times during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Nasty" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Nice Jab" or "Good Jab" 3+ times during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Notorious" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Submission" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Takedown" or "Take down" 5+ times during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "Triangle" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
- Will the announcers say "White House" during McGregor vs Holloway?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.