Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de3682a72f94843ad7b05fb24846e6df7c1f633ab733463d5f845765857db82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 801.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 64c | 628.12$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.12 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 5c | 481.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 313.15$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 237.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 37c | 193.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 12c | 189.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 176.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 17c | 147.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 142.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 123.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 114.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked Yes | 21c | 113.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 35c | 110.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 25c | 96.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 81.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…3235backed No | 76c | 79.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 32c | 79.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 78.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 35c | 72.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 79c | 72.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 67.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 24c | 61.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 27c | 60.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 62c | 58.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 54.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 52.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 52.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 40c | 51.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 48.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 39c | 42.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 60c | 41.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 40.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed No | 65c | 37.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 38c | 35.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3132…30d1backed Yes | 35c | 34.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 32.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 24.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 15.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.