Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90947f2765da69c9207076872b1e5d10336c45ddf7da7d4cf896dea88b304ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 61c | 1,050$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.53 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 771.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 56c | 699.86$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.3 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 517.82$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 47c | 504$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.14 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed No | 3c | 503.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 37c | 486.57$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 471.01$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 52c | 436.76$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.63 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 411.26$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 396.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.01 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 383.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 49c | 376.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 62c | 370.12$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 345.43$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.58 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 339.21$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 313.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 286$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 284.2$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 34c | 274.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.74 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 36c | 249.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 52c | 243.83$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 225.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 213.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 74c | 208.35$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 207.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 205$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 204.06$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 15c | 168.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 157.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked Yes | 55c | 157.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 75c | 144.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 59c | 138$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 135.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 53c | 134$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…53c3backed Yes | 45c | 131$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 68c | 121$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 47c | 120.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 10c | 109.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 107.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 59c | 105.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 53c | 98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 55c | 92.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 90.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 88.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 75c | 77.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 42c | 76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 75.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 74.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 19c | 65.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 35c | 65.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 31c | 63.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 60.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 52c | 59.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 51.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed No | 50c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 50.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 45c | 50.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 51c | 50.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 49.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 42c | 48.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 75c | 48.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 44.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 28c | 44.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 41.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 39c | 41.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 40.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 69c | 39.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 78c | 38.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…50bbbacked No | 55c | 36.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked Yes | 49c | 30.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…5609backed No | 66c | 30.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…dec7backed Yes | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 56c | 28.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 28.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.