TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb581…b496backed Yes61c1,050$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.535637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes4c771.15$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.298,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes56c699.86$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.323241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes51c517.82$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.694,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes47c504$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1470741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa957…7638backed No3c503.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.264555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No37c486.57$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5923146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c471.01$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.4512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No52c436.76$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6327841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c411.26$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.624,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes21c396.68$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.011,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No36c383.71$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.294,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No49c376.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.256744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0117…fd3bbacked No62c370.12$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.061442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes40c345.43$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No55c339.21$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.693,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c313.82$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.616,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c286$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.193,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c284.2$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.14,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes34c274.17$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7418650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No36c249.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5492028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes52c243.83$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3413048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No52c225.26$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.631,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No53c213.45$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.791,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes74c208.35$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.151,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No44c207.29$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.232,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c205$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.035,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes73c204.06$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5620662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No14c178$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes15c168.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5242820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes45c157.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1731943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb9…191abacked Yes55c157.03$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.661741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No55c150$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4846444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes75c144.4$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.634,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes59c138$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.911,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No53c135.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.531,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed No53c134$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3424841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc36…53c3backed Yes45c131$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.697969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes68c121$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.291,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes47c120.6$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes10c109.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5418222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No35c107.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.852,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes59c105.64$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4345130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2334…cd00backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes53c98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7720144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes55c92.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.672,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No35c90.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.197,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No69c88.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No22c85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9677151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf677…2efebacked Yes75c77.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.973537.1%13 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-42.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes42c76$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.182,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c75.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.159,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes24c74.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes27c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.33,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1417025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes19c65.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.810023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked No35c65.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.157231.9%23 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9140…f62cbacked Yes31c63.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes45c60.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.965,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes52c59.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4810134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No52c51.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.932,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…9c58backed No50c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.451637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes41c51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9935137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No38c50.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.062,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes45c50.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8828441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No51c50.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5833654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.11,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3022744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3321950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.151323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3314745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3a…cf77backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3311154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No44c49.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.082,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No42c48.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1642762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No75c48.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2540461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aca…6977backed Yes27c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.066232.3%20 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No25c44.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes28c44.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.856648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No48c41.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes39c41.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1523429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No46c40.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.882,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes69c39.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2410463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes78c38.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.318476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe783…50bbbacked No55c36.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No52c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No67c34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.927461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad5b…faddbacked Yes49c30.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.842227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x448e…5609backed No66c30.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe942…dec7backed Yes66c30.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9434846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes56c28.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.571,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No49c28.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.132,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a22…2851backed Yes42c28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.241136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.