Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefec5269c6a67752b18399cda0c87c98d1fd5021a51f0e8ffd2a4ddb53f74745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 1,013$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 9c | 583.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 21c | 487.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 434.82$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 414.03$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 402.96$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 359.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 36c | 310.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 262.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 261.6$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 226.14$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 206.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 205$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 200.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 157.12$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 155.05$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…6f7bbacked Yes | 33c | 154$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked Yes | 23c | 153.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 152.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 15c | 142.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No | 64c | 139.46$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 139.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 135.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked Yes | 29c | 127.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 116.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 113.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 35c | 110.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 103.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 102.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 99.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 98.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 27c | 98.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 97.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…3235backed No | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 31c | 93.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 38c | 93.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 93.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 86.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 28c | 83.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 79.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 78.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 74.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 33c | 74.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 18c | 72.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 67.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 38c | 65.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 64.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 63.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 62.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 60.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 57.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 38c | 57.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 56.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9b…496cbacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 39c | 51.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 50.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 47.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 33c | 47.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 46.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…04c8backed Yes | 35c | 44.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 40.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 39.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…362bbacked No | 67c | 32.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 28.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7d…ae9bbacked No | 67c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 19.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 65c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.