TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes30c1,013$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes9c583.03$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6792028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes21c487.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes30c434.82$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.74,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c414.03$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.544,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No77c402.96$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.064,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes31c359.35$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes36c310.75$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes33c262.83$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.962,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c261.6$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.25,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No80c226.14$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes24c206.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.863,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c205$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c200.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.183,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c157.12$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No68c155.05$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.392,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4de1…6f7bbacked Yes33c154$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598f…528bbacked Yes23c153.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.481442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c152.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.962,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes15c142.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1580130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No64c139.46$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.661330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No65c139.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6877555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No74c135.15$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.71,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb9…191abacked Yes29c127.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.981741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes31c116.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1848523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c113.46$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.653,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes35c110.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7623241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes16c103.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes21c102.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.533,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3618945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3217255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes32c99.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.372,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes35c98.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6657948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes27c98.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1323146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes33c97.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2285330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0456…3235backed No62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.771258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes31c93.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes38c93.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes37c93.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.953,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes34c88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9420144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No73c86.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes28c83.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.646648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No62c81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.781,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c79.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c78.84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.432,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No73c74.73$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes33c74.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.472416.7%4 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes18c72.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1346240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.766,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c67.94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.484,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bdc…e076backed Yes38c65.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256141%25 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c64.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.392,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c63.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.279,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No78c62.28$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.712,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes35c60.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.415,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c57.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.389,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes38c57.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.836237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No62c56.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.182,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f9b…496cbacked No67c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes39c51.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No66c50.03$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7654867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1046457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.512939.5%51 W · 78 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No68c47.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.292,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes33c47.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.434846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No75c46.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.442,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda62…04c8backed Yes35c44.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes34c42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1434628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No78c40.32$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No66c39.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.611,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No72c39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes33c38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.621,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No61c34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2617553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2f…362bbacked No67c32.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2615555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c28.78$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.814,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f77…4b79backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7d…ae9bbacked No67c23.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.646857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No79c19.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No65c18.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6237669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c16.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.93,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1511859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.752,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f0…7d92backed No67c14.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.95444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.