UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e08c05e5d158913fe6c7a0d427756165a5e931c2eedb1ddec43d5de95f222e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 57c | 3,850$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.17 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Over | 44c | 2,308$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.58 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Over | 40c | 1,739$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 60c | 976$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.4 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 41c | 904.33$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 59c | 636.82$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.1 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 362.21$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 41c | 355.94$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Under | 58c | 336.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…0924backed Under | 63c | 308.04$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…9d7cbacked Under | 58c | 244.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Over | 41c | 60.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 60c | 37.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 40c | 35.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 41c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…5067backed Under | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…eb30backed Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed Over | 45c | 27.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe372…6a34backed Under | 64c | 25.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims)Ryan Spann won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.