Dota2 · resolved market
1win to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e2173e7eb997dc42bb0257c6700791418c8eb33eb18b385264c88beb78aa398
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 50c | 9,500$4,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,734.45 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 62c | 4,758$2,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.71 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 44c | 2,277$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.53 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed No | 62c | 1,050$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Yes | 52c | 955.53$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed No | 48c | 919.96$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.38 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 48c | 615.75$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.03 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked No | 50c | 558.92$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.46 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 51c | 261$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 44c | 250$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked No | 44c | 227.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.85 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…d2c0backed Yes | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 108 | 70.4%76 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yes | 9c | 171$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 53c | 165.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed No | 46c | 159.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed No | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed No | 48c | 137.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…bd5ebacked Yes | 15c | 131.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Yes | 52c | 103.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked No | 44c | 98.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 44c | 97.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…c2c2backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed No | 51c | 84.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 63c | 75.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed No | 75c | 70.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Yes | 52c | 67.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fc…77afbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 44c | 57.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 58c | 52.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 44c | 39.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…bc49backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed No | 69c | 36.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Yes | 51c | 34.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Yes | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 61c | 31.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Yes | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…6715backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…e4d4backed Yes | 56c | 26.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 56c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 51c | 23.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…ad96backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1win to win 2-0?this page
- 1win vs OG: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
- OG to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.