TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, GamerLegion
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$242,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$326,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,952 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team72c25,281$18,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20328159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed GamerLegion29c22,478$6,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,489.3556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team71c16,936$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,935.731,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed BetBoom Team80c14,532$11,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.0230667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked GamerLegion20c12,500$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.9189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked GamerLegion23c12,130$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.441,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed GamerLegion21c11,611$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,391.8471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed GamerLegion27c10,754$2,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,901.0769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team70c10,747$7,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,231.4996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed BetBoom Team75c6,471$4,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.6440051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed GamerLegion31c6,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked BetBoom Team72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40013960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked BetBoom Team76c4,530$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.3633867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed GamerLegion30c4,494$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.3636248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked GamerLegion32c4,261$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.7135951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed GamerLegion32c4,210$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.9824153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed BetBoom Team71c4,145$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.6630357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed GamerLegion30c4,015$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.527153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed BetBoom Team73c4,000$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08026540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed GamerLegion30c3,566$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.7941351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked BetBoom Team75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62550347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked GamerLegion25c2,477$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed GamerLegion30c2,333$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.469350.5%47 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed BetBoom Team70c2,305$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.6512256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed GamerLegion27c2,250$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed GamerLegion28c2,177$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.61010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-82%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed GamerLegion28c2,121$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.8811654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed GamerLegion24c2,048$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.111,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed BetBoom Team75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked GamerLegion26c1,698$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.832548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed GamerLegion2c1,651$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.16132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked BetBoom Team70c1,600$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48065863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed GamerLegion14c1,600$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed BetBoom Team70c1,600$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed GamerLegion17c1,540$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5628044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed BetBoom Team73c1,510$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.0218446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed GamerLegion8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed GamerLegion30c1,499$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.2135151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked BetBoom Team70c1,480$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.9219547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed GamerLegion7c1,472$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4247646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed BetBoom Team71c1,445$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.1321158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed GamerLegion25c1,391$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.2745750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BetBoom Team75c1,329$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.262,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8627…cb74backed BetBoom Team73c1,295$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.713868.4%26 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked GamerLegion31c1,267$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.7631055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed GamerLegion27c1,250$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.4958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed GamerLegion28c1,239$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.796839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked GamerLegion31c1,200$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37225752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed BetBoom Team71c1,160$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.153758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked GamerLegion20c1,155$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2311,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked BetBoom Team76c1,040$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.656542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed BetBoom Team75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked GamerLegion27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x889f…c542backed GamerLegion27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2705234.6%18 W · 34 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed BetBoom Team74c999.98$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9914646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…e2c4backed BetBoom Team70c975.3$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.574141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked BetBoom Team69c900$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27927060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked GamerLegion23c875.2$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6750749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed GamerLegion27c834.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.4535737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked GamerLegion27c822.51$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22122340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbe…1f4abacked BetBoom Team76c790.08$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.089365.6%61 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked BetBoom Team78c788.49$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.837047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed GamerLegion21c753.99$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3488539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked GamerLegion31c742.73$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.8239550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed BetBoom Team69c699.99$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21714943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed BetBoom Team73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9318356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed GamerLegion19c650.89$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8447046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked BetBoom Team73c575.66$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4353844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked GamerLegion28c538.55$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7930155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed GamerLegion31c512.12$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7658356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed BetBoom Team73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1357263.9%46 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed BetBoom Team73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13534860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed GamerLegion27c439.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3593546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked BetBoom Team79c433.16$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9617373.4%127 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed BetBoom Team72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6722663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba46…6ac5backed BetBoom Team75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005275%39 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed GamerLegion25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed GamerLegion22c380.96$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.829243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed GamerLegion21c377$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1720233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21cc…54bcbacked BetBoom Team70c355.71$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.718442.9%36 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…98abbacked GamerLegion28c346.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9715546.5%72 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed BetBoom Team74c344$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4445457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed BetBoom Team72c331.07$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3710453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed BetBoom Team71c309.5$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0425266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked BetBoom Team73c306.52$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5330054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa766…1ce5backed BetBoom Team70c266.89$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.076572.3%47 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked BetBoom Team69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed BetBoom Team73c242.79$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5129352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed BetBoom Team69c242.64$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.227055.7%39 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260a…eb0fbacked BetBoom Team71c227.79$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7315368%104 W · 49 L+17.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked BetBoom Team73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed GamerLegion27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014030.7%43 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbda…d2c0backed BetBoom Team73c150.86$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8610870.4%76 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c87…516bbacked BetBoom Team73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9915961%97 W · 62 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed GamerLegion22c136.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked BetBoom Team69c130.43$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4511452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f3…da2bbacked BetBoom Team73c130$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.13675%27 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dc1…662fbacked BetBoom Team79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5811257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed GamerLegion24c126.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9815950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed GamerLegion25c119.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2435948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.