MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e85850493d5fc2f20e3f872803089b001c64893f9e72bb4d22425db0122936d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Over | 47c | 11,025$5,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,181.6 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 53c | 9,883$5,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,645.11 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 48c | 4,183$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.7 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 52c | 1,722$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.02 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.16 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,526$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 1,330$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 53c | 971.8$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 41c | 773.75$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.24 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 48c | 725.69$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.33 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 47c | 648.18$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 559.14$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 555.65$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.05 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 504.26$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.5 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 53c | 485.9$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.37 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 453$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 394.56$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.31 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 389.27$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 48c | 270.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 52c | 210.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 10c | 210.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ac39backed Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 53c | 188.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…1923backed Under | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 48c | 118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…a4a4backed Over | 45c | 107.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 53c | 98.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked Under | 54c | 95.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…66d4backed Over | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Over | 63c | 62.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 50c | 58.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 54.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 53c | 54.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…d2ddbacked Under | 48c | 54.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…4740backed Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 50.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Under | 54c | 45.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 77c | 45.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 42c | 39.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 39.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Over | 58c | 39.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 63c | 36.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 53c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Under | 56c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 46c | 32.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 57c | 32.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 48c | 32.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 61c | 21.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.