MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc767da25e7a0e5ef6a46748fe3ad710083a443336c3d51e5fbdb66b0020e7eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 997.39$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.27 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 679.96$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.59 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 595.07$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.93 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 572.41$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.86 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 549.09$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 516.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.14 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 414.8$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota Twins | 70c | 377.45$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 368.86$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 300.06$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 286.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 232.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 119.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 110.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…7e96backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 83.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 83.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 77.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 75.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 68.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 67.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 61.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 58.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 42.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 27.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 24.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.